A look ahead to a different Google
Hello and welcome to the latest edition of The Counterbalance. This week, we’re looking ahead to Google's future.
Welcome to the latest edition of The Counterbalance, where this week we are looking at the impact of the recent US court ruling against Google, which found the tech giant to have an illegal monopoly in the world of online advertising.
US District Judge Leonie Brinkema said last Thursday that Google “willfully engaged in a series of anti-competitive acts to acquire and maintain monopoly power in the publisher ad server and ad exchange markets for open-web display advertising.”
Judge Brinkema went on to add the tech behemoth illegally tied its adtech products together, and “substantially harmed” consumers on the open web.
The landmark ruling — as we explored last week — could force Google to break up its sprawling stranglehold on the online advertising industry, which in turn, could inject fresh momentum into the European Commission’s case against the tech giant.
“[Last week’s decision] is a welcome and big win for US antitrust enforcement. Now the EU should take courage from this decision and break up Google’s online advertising monopoly,” The Balanced Economy Project’s Executive Director Claire Godfrey said.
As important as Europe’s ongoing case against Google is, it is also important to keep a sharp eye on Google’s ongoing legal battles in Washington DC.
The Department of Justice is aiming to have Google sell its Chrome browser, as well as ending its pre-existing distribution agreements with other tech giants including Apple, where Google paid to have its Chrome browser established as the default search engine on Apple’s products.
DOJ attorney David Dahlquist said it is now time to “tell Google and other monopolists who are out there listening, and they are listening, that there are consequences when you break the antitrust laws.”
The DOJ is also pushing for the court to stop Google from establishing exclusive payment arrangements — similar to those in place for Google Chrome — for the company’s AI products, including conversational AI assistant tool Gemini.
The impact of these restrictions could send shockwaves through the world of monopoly power in a way that is difficult to overstate.
Right off the bat, the obvious benefits: more market access for competitors, fairer pricing and more accessibility to alternatives for consumers.
But these restrictions bring with them many other benefits, too. They would signal to the world that we must not allow emerging markets — particularly AI — to fall prey to illegal monopoly power in the same way that traditional financial markets did, when large institutions were allowed to become so big that their existence now presents a permanent risk to financial stability.
Ensuring Google does not impose a stranglehold on these emerging markets would also level the playing field for advertising revenue, benefitting startups in the space.
This is especially important when one considers the sheer number of acquisitions that Big Tech companies carry out. If you read last week’s edition of The Counterbalance, you would know that research carried out by the Center for Research on Multinational Corporations (SOMO) revealed that Big Tech companies acquire a new startup every 11 days.
Finally, it is worth pointing out that if the DOJ gets its way, the impact of these restrictions could fundamentally change the way Big Tech — and monopolistic actors more broadly —approach their businesses.
We all know that powerful monopolies have previously boiled down fines and legal setbacks to “the cost of doing business” but if watchdogs can effectively break up Google — and set a legal precedent for future cases — it’s easy to imagine other companies being caught in the crosshairs.
As Robert Nogacki, Founder and Managing Partner at Skarbiec Law Firm Group said: “the outcome could redefine digital competition for decades to come.”
Weekly highlights: A bad stretch for Big Tech
Bad news rolls on for Big Tech this week as Apple and Meta were hit with hefty fines by the European Union. EU regulators find the tech giants $570 million and $228 million respectively, in landmark fines under the block’s marquee Digital Markets Act. The European Commission found that Apple breached the DMA’s rules on app stores, while Meta was penalised for its “pay or consent” model which forced European users to pay to access ad-free versions of Facebook and Instagram. “It is welcome that the European Commission has not wavered against US pressure and is enforcing the DMA to protect European citizens and business. Regulators need to take the next step of breaking up structural power of the tech giants if they are to create the conditions for a new digital economy that serves public goals,” said Balanced Economy Project’s Executive Director Claire Godfrey.
American monopolies find themselves in the crosshairs yet again, in an opinion piece authored by Dean Baker, Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Amid talk of a protracted trade war between Europe and the United States, Baker suggests that America’s “new enemies” (the EU and Canada to name two) can one-up Trump’s carefully crafted bombardment of tariffs. “They can pursue retaliatory measures that will badly hurt the United States while actually helping their own economies. Specifically, they can announce a policy of no longer respecting US patent and copyright monopolies for as long as Donald Trump is playing his silly tariff game.”
Soundbite of the week: A multibillion-dollar tariff
A final word on Meta for today: the tech giant’s response to the EU’s fine today reveals yet again how tensely politicised relations between Europe and Big Tech have become.
In a statement, Meta’s Chief Global Affairs Officer Joel Kaplan said the European Commission was “attempting to handicap successful American business.” He went on to add that Europe is attempting to force Meta into changing its business model to such a degree that doing so is tantamount to a “multibillion dollar tariff”.
“The Commission forcing us to change our business model effectively imposes a multibillion-dollar tariff on Meta while requiring us to offer an inferior service.”
Mining for private equity data:
An often-overlooked aspect of monopoly power is the role private equity can play in contributing to the creation of monopolies, where PE money snaps up a large share of a sector, reducing innovation and pushing out smaller participants as a result.
A concerning trend has emerged early this year in Europe, where, according to PitchBook data, private equity deal value for Europe’s financial services sector for Q1 2025 is almost 20% higher than this time last year.
In the first three months of the year, €7.8 billion was invested compared to just €6.4 billion during the same period in 2024.
The Counterbalance is published every Thursday. Please send any thoughts and feedback to scott@balancedeconomy.org.